These are from recent analyses and talks I have given on what to expect with AHCA. All info being updated as it comes in.
Gist is that AHCA seems to be a cut to growth, not a cut to actual spending. All CBO estimates are compared to current law (ACA) projections for future years.
Links to actuarial report used for 2014-2022 under ACA is below. So is link for CBO report.
Could be lot I am missing on this, but trying to piece together as best as I can. If you see any errors, please let me know using clay@mostlymedicaid.com.
Offered without commentary (for now)
medicaid-actuarial-report-2013 (actually from 2013, so ACA spending higher than shown. I was too lazy to update the projections for ACA, but realize the actuals came in much higher than this report projected, esp in 2016).